At more than 7.6% on 30-year jumbos, San Francisco’s affordability math is punishing for buyers who underestimate carry costs. But the buyers who are closing in 2026 are not ignoring rates — they are planning around them more precisely than any generation of SF buyers before them.
Jumbo daily closes: 7.62%, 7.62%, 7.65%, 7.67%, 7.65%, 7.65% — Mortgage News Daily 30-year jumbo index, 13 to 20 October 2026. Conforming 30-year fixed averaged 7.40% for the week of 15 October 2026, unchanged from the week before (Freddie Mac PMMS). San Francisco County’s 2026 conforming limit is $1,249,125 (FHFA), so most SF purchases above roughly $1.56M with 20% down price off the jumbo line, not the conforming one.
The real affordability calculation for SF buyers
SF buyers need to think in terms of total monthly cost of ownership, not just the mortgage payment. Property taxes (currently ~1.17% of purchase price per year), HOA fees (for condos), insurance, maintenance reserves, and opportunity cost on the down payment all factor into the real number.
At the $2.05M SFH median (SFAR MLS, September 2026) with 20% down ($410K), the loan is $1.64M. At 7.65% (Mortgage News Daily 30-year jumbo index, 20 Oct 2026), the principal and interest payment alone is approximately $11,600/month. Add property taxes ($2,000/month), insurance ($200/month), and maintenance reserves ($500/month) and you are at approximately $14,300/month before any HOA.
Jumbo loan strategy in 2026
San Francisco County’s 2026 conforming loan limit is $1,249,125 (FHFA), so jumbo financing generally starts above a $1.56M purchase at 20% down, or about $1.39M at 10% down. The jumbo market in 2026 is competitive among lenders — private banks, portfolio lenders, and credit unions often offer better rates and terms than conventional jumbo programs, especially for buyers with substantial assets or complex income profiles.
The ARM vs. fixed debate for SF buyers
In a market where many buyers expect to either refinance or sell within 7–10 years, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) remain a rational tool. A 7/6 SOFR ARM at 6.80% against a 30-year fixed at 7.40% (Mortgage News Daily daily index, both 20 Oct 2026) saves about $650/month on a $1.6M loan for the first seven years, before the rate begins adjusting every six months — a meaningful difference at SF loan sizes. Both index rates reflect standard loan pricing, so get jumbo ARM and jumbo fixed quotes side by side before deciding.
How to use the RSU Calculator on this site
The RSU & Affordability Calculator on this site lets you model different purchase prices, down payment amounts, and rate scenarios to find your real monthly cost range. Use it as a starting point before any lender conversation.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What income do I need to buy a $2M home in San Francisco in 2026?
At 7.65% (Mortgage News Daily 30-year jumbo index, 20 Oct 2026), 20% down, and a 45% DTI cap applied to full PITI as lenders underwrite it, you need approximately $360,000 in qualifying annual income for a $2M purchase, assuming no other monthly debt — but this varies significantly based on debt, RSU income qualification, and lender. Private bank products for high-net-worth buyers can stretch these parameters.
Should I wait for rates to drop before buying in SF?
Waiting for rates to drop while SF prices are rising is a common trap. A 1% rate reduction on a $1.7M loan (7.65% to 6.65%) saves about $1,150/month — but a 5% price increase on the $2.13M home that loan implies costs $106,000. Rate timing is less important than market timing and property selection in SF’s constrained market.
About the author
Adrian Huntington · San Francisco Luxury REALTOR® · DRE #01804851
Adrian Huntington has 20+ years of San Francisco real estate experience and $414M+ in closed sales, advising luxury buyers, sellers, and relocation clients with off-market access and RSU / equity-compensation strategy at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Drysdale Properties.
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