San Francisco condos spent 2022–2024 as a genuine buyer’s market — inventory was high, prices were soft, and buyers had negotiating leverage. In 2026, that window is closing. AI worker demand, RTO-driven location preferences, and a tightening rental market are pushing condo prices back toward their pre-pandemic benchmarks in several neighborhoods.
Citywide condo/TIC/co-op median $1,275,000 across 2,189 closed sales, up 14.3% from $1,115,000 a year earlier — SFAR MLS Local Market Update, closed sales 1 Jan–30 Sep 2026 vs. 1 Jan–30 Sep 2025.
What drove the condo softness and what reversed it
The 2022–2024 condo weakness in San Francisco was driven by remote work (removing the SF location premium), rising HOA costs, and a flood of investor-owned units coming to market. In 2026, all three dynamics have shifted: RTO is real, AI companies have made SoMa and Mission Bay desirable again, and many speculative sellers have cleared the market.
Which neighborhoods are seeing the most condo competition
SoMa and Mission Bay are the epicenter of renewed condo demand — proximity to AI firm offices is the primary driver. The Marina and Pacific Heights are seeing competition for well-maintained 1–2 bedroom units. Nob Hill and Russian Hill are attracting buyers who want city-living character without South of Market density.
The HOA due diligence that still matters
Even in a tightening market, condo buyers in SF must rigorously review HOA financials, reserve funds, litigation history, and special assessment risk. Buildings with underfunded reserves or pending litigation remain a significant purchase risk regardless of location.
Condo vs. SFH: which makes sense in 2026
For buyers with budgets under $1.5M, condos remain the primary path to SF ownership. Above $1.5M, the SFH market offers better long-term appreciation and more flexibility. The right choice depends on your timeline, maintenance tolerance, and neighborhood priorities.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Are SF condos a good investment in 2026?
In the right sub-markets and buildings, yes. SoMa, Mission Bay, and the Marina are showing improving fundamentals. The key is building quality and HOA health — not just location. A poorly managed building in a great neighborhood is a worse investment than a well-run building in a secondary location.
What should I check in an SF condo HOA before buying?
Reserve study adequacy (ideally 70%+ funded), litigation history, special assessments in the last 5 years, owner-occupancy ratio, and the most recent board meeting minutes. Your agent should help you obtain and review all of these before removal of inspection contingencies.
About the author
Adrian Huntington · San Francisco Luxury REALTOR® · DRE #01804851
Adrian Huntington has 20+ years of San Francisco real estate experience and $414M+ in closed sales, advising luxury buyers, sellers, and relocation clients with off-market access and RSU / equity-compensation strategy at Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Drysdale Properties.
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